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Antonio Caldas – Political Situation in Thailand

Thailand has been engulfed in political crisis for six months now, with street
protests pushing to outright topple the government of Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra. The crisis is especially serious given that Thailand has experienced
more coups d’état than any other country in contemporary history. Scholars
sometimes describe the era beginning in 1932 and running up through today as
Thailand’s “coup season.” Since 1932, Thailand has endured an astonishing 11
successful military coups, as well as seven attempted coups. These coups
normally cool down and end quickly, without dramatic breakthrough. Every time,
though, some industries are dramatically impacted  notably the
tourism.

The most recent coup was initiated in December 2013 , with the
same script: relatively few casualties and short termed … local business people
forecast it will end by the end of this year, probably with new general
elections. This time again, tourism was hammered. Some less competitive hotels
are experiencing record low occupation in Bangkok. International media tends to
magnify the risks of traveling to Thailand in this periods.Captura de Tela 2014-07-03 às 19.33.16

Interesting, however, is the attitude of investment international community.
After confirming this is once more a short term situation, with limited impact on overall growth
of Thai economy, major indicators of international interest for Thailand are
back to normal. The Thai Bath only lost an average of 3% of its value versus the
US Dollar . The MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index, designed to track the overall
performance of the Thai stock exchange initially dropped 20%, but since then,
managed to recover to the same average level of 2013.

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